Thursday, July 06, 2006

World Calamity Doesn't Make Cut

There's an interesting op-ed by Gary Yohe and Michael Schlesinger here.

I agree with the basic premise that we should attempt to account for uncertainty in a meaningful and consistent way in our decisions.

I disagree with their presentation of fundamentally subjective probabilistic estimates as if they are objective facts ("Our own work has shown that there is a 1 in 5 chance...")

I disagree strongly with their specific assertion of a THC collapse by 2050 with 20% probability.

Michael Schlesinger was at the workshop last week. Interesting guy, but I didn't agree with everything he said...

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